5 Wine Market Trends for 2024 and Beyond
Check out the most important topics shaping the wine market in the coming years
In this edition of the Winext blog, we delve into the major transformations that have recently shaped the wine market and are expected to remain relevant in the years ahead. In an environment of such volatility and uncertainty, adopting a long-term perspective and focusing on structural changes can be a valuable strategy.
From climate change to moderated consumption, along with regulatory shifts and Brazil’s position in the global wine scene, these issues should be on the agenda of every professional who is attentive to the transformations of an increasingly dynamic and demanding market.
Sharpen your focus and check out the five key trends to watch this year and beyond.
Follow us on Instagram, Facebook and LinkedIn pages, and subscribe to our newsletter .
#1 - Moderation in Consumption
The greatest wine?
The one that you will remember.
The global movement toward alcohol moderation is not new. Initiatives like Dry January, Sober October, and others have been gaining traction each year, particularly among younger generations, and are expected to strengthen with increased health awareness and the pursuit of a balanced lifestyle in the post-pandemic era. According to Time magazine, 15% of American adults participated in Dry January in 2023, translating to 39 million fewer drinkers in just one month—the equivalent of Canada’s entire population.
This awareness also extends to wine professionals. Who would have imagined a few years ago that discussions about sommeliers who abstain from alcohol would become a topic? Yet, this very issue was covered in Wine Enthusiast magazine this month.
“Movements like Dry January already mobilize 39 million people in the U.S., equivalent to the population of Canada.”
Additionally, the arrival of a new wave of obesity-control medications is expected to affect the appetite and drinking habits of affluent consumers—historically significant contributors to wine sales. Smaller portions and mocktails (non-alcoholic cocktails) are likely to continue growing on restaurant menus.
#2 - Stricter Alcohol Regulations
The shift in consumer habits has been accompanied by stricter alcohol consumption laws in various countries. In 2023, Ireland implemented a new law requiring alcoholic beverages to carry health warning labels. Last year, the UK introduced the largest alcohol tax increase in 50 years, disproportionately impacting high-alcohol wines. This year, European consumers will have access to nutritional information on the back labels of wines and sparkling wines.
As if stricter laws weren’t enough, in early 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a statement declaring that “no level of alcohol consumption is risk-free”, contradicting some scientific opinions that moderate drinking may have health benefits. The challenge lies in the fact that research on wine and health is highly biased and complex, making it difficult to convey clear media messages. Moderation seems to be the best alternative.
“In 2023, the World Health Organization took the position that no level of alcohol consumption is risk-free.”
There is an ongoing debate about how wine should position itself in this landscape, and we seem to be missing the opportunity to reinforce the historical, social, and cultural associations that are deeply tied to wine. Practical actions could also promote responsible consumption, such as encouraging hydration while drinking, strengthening the association of wine with meals, and making spit buckets available in tasting rooms. Collective movements like Wine in Moderation should reach more people and become a central industry focus.
New legislation in Ireland requires warning labels.
#3 - Climate Change and Its Impact on Production
Climate change is already a reality, and its effects on wine production are significant. Preliminary data from the OIV (International Organisation of Vine and Wine) indicates that 2023 saw the lowest global wine production in 60 years, with declines in key producing regions like Italy, Spain, Australia, and Chile—an overall decrease of about 7% compared to 2022.
The direct impact is an increase in production costs, though the final price increase has been somewhat mitigated by declining global consumption. Furthermore, climate shifts are causing the relocation of many wine-growing regions, with new sites emerging and existing ones having to adapt by introducing new technologies and more resilient grape varieties.
“Climate change is already impacting wine production and affecting the transition to more sustainable viticulture.”
Extreme weather conditions also hinder the transition to more sustainable viticulture, which requires reduced pesticide use. Many producers complain about the high costs of production, compounded by the fact that consumers are not always willing to pay more for sustainable wines. For instance, participation in France’s Haute Valeur Environnementale (HVE) sustainability certification program has slowed, growing only 3% in 2023 compared to 23% the previous year.
Worker burning vine branches in the Pommard Rugiens vineyard, Burgundy, France. (Credit: Oscar Oliveras / Errazuriz Wine Photographer of the Year 2023).
#4 - The Rise of Wine Tourism and Brazil’s Expanding Wine Regions
The rise of wine tourism has been one of the positive legacies of the pandemic in Brazil and worldwide. Euromonitor estimates that the travel and tourism sector will grow by 16% in 2024, significantly outpacing the projected global economic growth of 2.7%.
A new study by luxury travel company Virtuoso confirms this trend, reporting a 70% increase in interest in travel experiences related to food and wine, with a particular demand for immersive, authentic, and hyper-local experiences.
“Wine tourism could attract new consumers to the category and spread wine culture across Brazil.”
In Brazil, the expansion of experience-based tourism has coincided with the emergence of high-quality wine-producing regions near major urban centers. Whether in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Santa Catarina’s mountains, or the Brazilian savanna (cerrado), this movement complements the success of wine tourism in Rio Grande do Sul and could help attract new wine enthusiasts while fostering wine culture throughout the country.
Vineyards in the countryside of Minas Gerais (Credit: Maria Maria Winery).
#5 - The Brazilian Wine Market: A Safe Harbor Amid the Storm
In a global scenario marked by wars, logistical challenges, rising production costs, and declining consumption, Brazil stands out as a relatively safe harbor amid the storm. The country has the fifth-largest adult population in the world (170 million people over 18), the ninth-largest economy (USD 2.13 trillion), yet ranks only 16th in global wine consumption (3.6 million hectoliters). This highlights the vast potential for wine market growth in Brazil.
Beyond that, Brazil’s wine market has experienced relatively stable growth compared to other large emerging economies. For instance, over the past six years, China’s share of global wine consumption declined by 4%, whereas Brazil’s increased by 0.5% (2016–2022, OIV data).
“The Brazilian wine market has experienced relatively stable growth over the past six years.”
In 2023, Brazil emerged as the top export market for Chilean wines, both in volume and value. Despite a challenging year with a 9% drop compared to 2022, exports to Brazil declined less than to other major markets.
Despite global uncertainty and domestic challenges, the Brazilian wine market remains fundamentally strong, supporting the continued growth of red, white, and sparkling wines.
Learn more at:
The origins of Dry January - Revista Time, jan 24
Wine and Health: Challenging the 'No Safe Level' Claims - Meininger’s Wine Business International, out 23
No alcohol consumption is safe for your health - World Health Organization, jan 23
Les vignerons bio dans la tourmente - Vitisphere, dez 23
Top Trends for Travel in 2024 - Euromonitor, dez 23
The State of the wine industry report 2022 - OIV, apr 23
Can a sommelier be sober? - Wine Enthusiast, jan 24
Seven wine trends in 2024 - Meininger’s Wine Business International, jan 24
Winext helps wine companies to be successful in Brazil. Find out more about our services here.
Follow our Instagram page! Also, take the opportunity to follow us on Facebook and LinkedIn, and subscribe to our newsletter.
